TLT
Rates Higher for Longer · SHORT · OPEN · MID· 14 days open
✓ Plan·Execution·Debrief
Theme Health
Rates Higher for Longer
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Score /100
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Stars
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Trend
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Evidence
Updated
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Trade Scorecard
Loading…Composite Edge
3.0/5
Moderate
3/5
3/5
Theme Confidence (derived)—
Auto-derived from theme strength score · Score evidence on the Theme page to change this
Composite = avg(thesis, macro, theme)
Thesis
Thesis
Long-end rates grind higher as term premium normalizes.
Mispricing
Market still pricing cuts too early.
Must happen
Fed holds; inflation data doesn't collapse.
Catalysts
FOMC March, CPI prints.
Hard invalidation
Fed cuts 50bp+ in one meeting.
Execution plan
Entry
Scale in on 10Y above 4.2%.
Exit
Take profit at 10Y 4.8%; trim on break below 4%.
Stop · Time stop 60d
Stop if 10Y breaks below 3.8%.
Price Alerts
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Execution logs
- ENTRY4/28/2026, 3:38:01 PM
Initial short TLT at 10Y 4.25%.
- NOTE4/28/2026, 3:38:01 PM
Watching CPI for confirmation.
- REVIEWScore: 4/54/28/2026, 3:38:01 PM
Thesis intact; holding. Add on strength.
- ENTRY4/28/2026, 3:37:47 PM
Initial short TLT at 10Y 4.25%.
- NOTE4/28/2026, 3:37:47 PM
Watching CPI for confirmation.
- REVIEWScore: 4/54/28/2026, 3:37:47 PM
Thesis intact; holding. Add on strength.
Linked research
Trade Debrief
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